Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 15.786794 18.013081 20.420624 23.215092 26.366872 29.809016 33.850579
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.065401 14.963196 18.344234 22.570592 27.702019 33.719831 41.301506
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.399554 13.600720 17.520116 22.653662 29.180543 37.180675 47.707401
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.236402 12.659429 17.031991 22.998099 30.894075 40.949850 54.686374
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.285260 11.829466 16.526719 23.166592 32.263145 44.234038 61.117845
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.384107 10.947980 15.834162 22.968697 33.056011 46.732318 66.588134
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.763474 10.378732 15.490620 23.177361 34.359309 49.931734 73.135240
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.388615 10.117816 15.541793 23.919489 36.426147 54.271763 81.493703
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.801470 9.476531 14.971351 23.683243 37.020012 56.503192 86.904373
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.047130 8.503156 13.814682 22.457691 36.022886 56.305821 88.669705
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.796980 8.304394 13.826668 23.019283 37.764162 60.261300 96.860666
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.574593 8.128162 13.853692 23.593430 39.541974 64.346448 105.445919
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.196517 7.665793 13.394204 23.365163 40.052626 66.535845 111.270882
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.813453 7.160821 12.824196 22.908814 40.154497 68.073869 116.137282
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.555138 6.850505 12.554316 22.928779 41.029665 70.879762 123.176697
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.378082 6.670619 12.493556 23.298817 42.510560 74.746508 132.159506
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.184316 6.441737 12.326049 23.462126 43.631871 78.053990 140.352528
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.955361 6.125315 11.974605 23.264248 44.092985 80.244536 146.724407
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.802518 5.942612 11.853622 23.474636 45.287928 83.749045 155.534012
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.730665 5.914123 12.018552 24.225992 47.507543 89.156446 167.958792
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.542095 5.632392 11.676850 23.986804 47.866333 91.249836 174.534667
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.255209 5.121492 10.849360 22.746470 46.251539 89.669456 174.328937
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.189214 5.072878 10.937271 23.314845 48.135755 94.605722 186.366643